After 20 years in the entrepreneurial media and events space, and over 15 years spent embedded in the global franchise community, there’s one truth I’ve seen play out time and again: most people wait too long. They wait for the economy to stabilise, for interest rates to come down, for their personal lives to calm down, or for the market to feel right. But the reality is, perfect timing doesn’t exist. And waiting for it is often what holds potential franchisees back more than anything else.
We’re living in unpredictable times
It’s understandable why people hesitate. Right now, the global economy feels uncertain. Interest rates remain high, inflation has squeezed household budgets, and global trade tensions, especially between major economies like the U.S. and China, are having ripple effects.
Indeed, even after factoring in the recent reduction in levies (from very high levels) by the U.S. on China the Yale Budget Lab reported that the cost of Trump’s trade war will remain significant with expectations that rising prices will reduce the purchasing power of the average household by $2,800 this year. Moreover, increased tariffs are forecast to shave 0.7 percentage points off U.S. economic growth and increase the unemployment rate to almost 4.6% from 4.2%.
The Yale Budget Lab also estimated that Trump policies will push the average U.S. tariff rate to 17.8%. That’s the highest since 1934 and up from around 2.5% when he took office. Putting this in perspective the average tariff rose just 1 percentage point in Trump’s first term, despite all the headlines generated by his trade policies. This time round they are rising 15 percentage points, according to the Lab.
That kind of pressure inevitably impacts consumer habits, pricing strategies, and operating margins, especially for franchise models dependent on imported goods, materials, or equipment.
Unsurprisingly, given the uncertainties surrounding the impact of Trump’s tariffs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) recently slashed its ‘growth’ forecast (regarding global merchandise trading volumes) for 2025 to -0.2%. That’s nearly three percentage points lower than what would have been expected under a “low tariff” baseline scenario, according to the WTO Secretariat’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on 16th April. Moreover, this was premised on the tariff situation as of 14th April. Trade could shrink even further, to -1.5% in 2025, if the situation deteriorates, it added.
Against this backdrop the WTO’s global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 was also lowered, to 2.2% from 2.8%.
Downgrades and more downgrades
Here in the UK, meanwhile, The EY ITEM Club, in its Spring forecast, cut its GDP growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% from the 1% forecast in February. It also reduced forecast 2026 growth to 0.9% from 1.6%.
While the start of 2025 appeared to show economic momentum building, the weaker global economy and market uncertainty created by trade disruption are expected to limit spending in the second and third quarters of this year as businesses and consumers become more cautious.
This caution is expected to continue into 2026 and will be combined with the longer-term effect of tariffs on businesses and consumers. The forecast assumes the US will operate with an average tariff rate of more than 20% for much of the rest of the world, which is expected to make it challenging for some UK exports to reach key markets, whilst weakening goods demand and restraining growth.
The EY ITEM Club still expects the UK to return to a more moderate path of 1.5% GDP growth, but this is now forecast to happen in 2027 rather than 2026.
The IMF meanwhile is forecasting the UK economy to grow 1.2% this year, marginally higher than the 1.1% it predicted in April, before rising to 1.4% in 2026 – this despite headwinds from U.S. tariffs that are pencilled in to lop 0.3% off annual output.
The hidden cost of waiting
Over the years, I’ve had countless conversations with aspiring franchisees who were almost ready to make a move. When I catch up with them a year or two later, I often hear, “I wish I had started then.” That hesitation has a price. In franchising, prime territories get taken. Start-up costs rise. Funding becomes more competitive. And more importantly, time gets lost, time that could have been spent learning, growing, and building equity. I’m not advocating for recklessness. You absolutely need to do your research, understand the model, and be financially prepared. But if you’ve found a brand that aligns with your values and goals, and you’ve done the groundwork, then often the only thing left holding you back is fear disguised as timing.
What franchising offers in uncertain markets
Franchising isn’t a shortcut, it’s a supported path. It offers structure, mentorship, and a proven business model. That’s not to say it’s without risk. But compared to starting from scratch, it offers a far stronger foundation, especially in volatile economic conditions.
Throughout my time in the franchise world, I’ve seen time and again how strong systems, a recognisable brand, and community support can help franchisees weather difficult economic cycles. The businesses that thrive are often those that lean into the support network around them, follow proven systems, and focus on local relevance and execution.
What I’ve seen in successful franchisees
The franchise owners who go on to scale and succeed typically share a few traits:
- They’re not fearless, but they act anyway
- They don’t wait for the market, they prepare for it
- They understand that building a business means growing themselves in the process
- They see franchising as an investment, not a guarantee
I’ve had the privilege of working with franchisees who started with modest resources but abundant intent, and today run multi-unit operations. None of them started because the moment was perfect. They started because they were ready to commit.
Final thoughts
Markets will rise and fall. Interest rates will shift. Tariff policies will change. There is no ideal moment just over the horizon. But there are opportunities right now for those willing to take informed, strategic action. If you’re sitting on the fence, ask yourself, are you waiting because you truly need more preparation, or because you’re hoping for perfect conditions? Franchising, when done well, is about consistency, resilience, and vision. And if you’ve done your homework, connected with the right brand, and are prepared to lead, then now may be exactly the right time to begin.
Sources:
1. Yale Budget Lab – The State of U.S. Tariffs and Global Impact (May 2025) https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-12-2025
2. World Trade Organization: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/tfore_16apr25_e.htm
3. EY ITEM Club: https://www.ey.com/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-uk/newsroom/2025/04/ey-uk-ey-item-club-spring-forecast-04-2025.pdf
4. IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/27/cs-uk-aiv-2025
